By Carl Conetta. Source: Center for International Policy.
Has America’s “isolationist” moment ended before even getting much of a start? Has public opinion warmed to a new round of interventionism? A careful and critical review of public opinion data shows that isolationism was never at the heart of citizens’ qualms about new foreign military adventures. Nor does current support for military action, which is limited in scope and conditional, mean that the public is ready to repeat the wars of the past decade.
The clamor about “isolationism” misconstrued a real and significant trend in public opinion – one that reaches further back than the past few years. The U.S. majority continues to support an active U.S. role in world affairs, but it prefers cooperative, non-military approaches. Recent dissent from official policy has focused on undue military activism as well as the notion that America should assume a uniquely assertive global role.
The U.S. public will support wars for a variety reasons, but it tends to view war in defensive terms and as an instrument of last resort. Sustaining support requires that the perceived costs of war match the perceived security benefit. The experience of the past decade, involving both war and economic recession, has left the public acutely sensitive to the cost-benefit balance as well as deeply skeptical about it. One effect has been continuing support for cuts in defense spending, despite Pentagon claims that this imperils America’s half-trillion dollar military.
Opinion polls show a significant gap between policy leaders and the general public regarding both war and America’s global leadership role. Public opinion is malleable, however. Political actors seeking more defense spending or a more confrontational stance abroad can bias debate in several ways. One is to frame discussion of the Pentagon budget in terms of averting a “hollow military.” Another is to use Second World War metaphors – references to Hitler, Munich, and isolationism – to describe current security challenges and choices. Both of these maneuvers are now fully in play.
Partisan political dynamics also influence opinion trends. During polarized election campaigns, security policy debate becomes more hawkish, carrying public sentiment with it. Historical precedent suggests that both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees will argue for significant Pentagon budget increases. This represents a missed opportunity. Economic and strategic realities both argue for a reset of U.S. security policy. Polls suggest that Americans are ready to consider one. And true policy alternatives are available for consideration. What is lacking is positive leadership.
The report offers a comprehensive and critical analysis of current and historical US public opinion polls on global engagement, military intervention, and defense spending. Significant change in public sentiments is evident. So is an enduring divide between elite opinion and the general public. The report assesses these in light of changes in US policy, strategic conditions, and the economy. It also examines the effect of partisan political dynamics on public debate and opinion. Seven tables and graphs.
* The report surveys multiple polling sources to give a nuanced view of US public opinion on US global policy. It also examines the object of public concern: the extent and nature of current US global engagement
* Contrary to claims of “isolationism,” a solid majority of Americans continue to support an active US role in the world. The public dissent from recent policy focuses more narrowly on military activism and the notion that America should assume a uniquely assertive leadership role in world affairs.
* The US public will support wars for a variety reasons, but it tends to view war in defensive and pragmatic terms. Over time, the perceived costs of war must match the perceived gains in security. The experience of the past decade, encompassing both war and economic recession, has left the public acutely sensitive to the cost-benefit balance and deeply skeptical about it. The public has lost faith in key aspects of post-Cold War US security policy.
* Current support for bombing ISIS extremists in Iraq and Syria does not contravene the limits outlined above. Public support, which is limited in scope and conditional, will waver if the mission grows or fails to show real progress.
* One effect of pubic discontent with recent US policy is support for cuts in Pentagon spending. This may soon change, however – mostly due to domestic political dynamics. Bitter and polarized presidential election campaigns tend to push defense policy debate in a hawkish direction. In the coming months, leading presidential candidates, both Democratic and Republican, will support substantial increases in defense spending.
* A paradox of public opinion on defense spending is that some sectors of the public support increased spending not in order to enable greater military involvement abroad, but as an alternative to it.
For an executive summary [PDF] of the report, please click here.
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